India’s Ethanol Feedstock Moment
Q1. Could you start by giving us a brief overview of your professional background, particularly focusing on your expertise in the industry?
I currently head Procurement for a large grain-based ethanol manufacturing company, leading end-to-end sourcing of key feedstocks and critical inputs, including maize, broken rice, enzymes, yeast, bagasse, paddy husk, and coal on a pan-India basis.
I have worked extensively in agro-commodities and chemical inputs, supporting sectors including ethanol & distilleries, food processing, starch, and animal feed. I have over 23 years of expertise in procurement and supply chain management. In addition to feedstocks including maize, paddy, broken rice, wheat, and paddy husk, I also have experience with by-products like DDGS and DWGS (wet cake).
Core Expertise & Strengths
• Strategic procurement planning with a strong focus on cost optimization, quality assurance, and supply continuity
• Pan-India sourcing networks across key producing regions, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, and West Bengal
• Deep on-ground experience with APMC mandis, including spot purchasing and price discovery mechanisms
• Strong relationships with traders, brokers, and commission agents (Aadhatis) built over decades
• Expertise in direct procurement, broker-led trading, rake-load transactions, bilty-based deals, and structured trade models
• Strong analytical capability in crop production assessment, demand-supply analysis, and real-time market intelligence
Operational & Commercial Experience
• Successful execution of large-volume commodity deals, including full rake loads and high-frequency truck movements
• Efficient coordination of warehousing, logistics, vendor management, and plant supply assurance
• Management of general procurement covering chemicals, enzymes, yeast, and other critical inputs
• DDGS & DWGS (Wet Cake): active involvement in business development and sales support, contributing to market expansion and value realization (Member of expert panel)
Q2. How do you see the demand for ethanol feedstocks like maize and broken rice evolving over the next 2–3 years, particularly with India’s ethanol blending targets increasing?
Demand for ethanol feedstocks is structurally set to remain strong over the next 2-3 years, even with periodic volatility. As India moves steadily toward E20 blending and higher ethanol consumption, grain-based ethanol will continue to play a critical balancing role alongside sugar-based ethanol.
Maize demand, in particular, is expected to rise as new capacities stabilize operations. Broken rice demand may remain policy-sensitive, but it will continue to serve as an essential swing feedstock, depending on availability, pricing, and government allocations.
However, demand growth will not be linear. It will depend on factors such as OMC allocation mechanisms, pricing certainty, and policy clarity. Plants that can secure feedstock efficiently during both surplus and tight cycles will have a competitive advantage.
Q3. To what extent do you see India still relying on imports for maize and feedstock grains in the next few years? Are there structural shifts toward domestic sourcing?
In the medium run, India will mostly continue to rely on domestic sources for ethanol feedstocks. The ecosystem's structural focus is on helping Indian farmers and local procurement is more in line with supply-chain management, logistics economics, and policy goals.
That said, imports may be explored as a tactical option during years of sharp domestic shortages or price distortions. But imports are unlikely to become a permanent or large-scale solution unless there are significant reforms in trade policy and logistics economics.
Encouragingly, we are already seeing structural shifts toward improved domestic sourcing, better price signaling to farmers, increased maize acreage in some regions such as Uttar Pradesh and MP, and closer integration between processors and farm-level supply chains.
Q4. What role do digital tools—market intelligence platforms, AI-based forecasting, mandi dashboards, or remote crop monitoring—play today in procurement decisions?
Digital tools are becoming increasingly important, though procurement in India still requires strong ground intelligence. Market dashboards, mandi price trackers, satellite-based crop estimates, and AI-driven demand-supply models help with early trend identification and scenario planning.
However, digital tools work best when combined with field-level insights, physical mandi visits, conversations with farmers, trader feedback, crop condition checks, and logistics realities. In my experience, the winning procurement strategies are those that blend data-driven intelligence with on-ground execution capability. Over time, digital tools will move from decision-support systems to core components of procurement planning.
Q5. How is the push toward sustainable fuel and carbon neutrality influencing procurement choices, especially crop-based vs residue-based or cellulosic feedstocks?
Sustainability considerations are increasingly influencing procurement strategies. While crop-based feedstocks currently form the backbone of India’s ethanol program, there is growing interest in residue-based and cellulosic pathways for the long term.
From a procurement perspective, this means preparing for diversification, evaluating feedstock sustainability, water footprint, logistics emissions, and farmer impact. In the near term, crop-based ethanol will remain dominant due to scale and reliability, but future procurement models will likely involve a mix of crop-based and advanced feedstocks.
Companies that start building capabilities and partnerships around sustainable sourcing early will be better positioned as regulations and expectations evolve.
Q6. As ethanol blending moves toward higher targets (like 20% blending), what opportunities does this create for players who can scale procurement effectively?
Higher ethanol blending targets strongly favor players who can scale procurement reliably and cost-effectively. Key opportunities include cost leadership through robust sourcing networks, improved plant utilization through assured feedstock availability, and enhanced negotiating strength across the value chain.
However, effective procurement scaling goes beyond volume. It requires risk diversification across regions, seasons, and supplier bases, supported by strong procurement systems, logistics integration, and long-term supplier partnerships. As the ethanol ecosystem expands beyond fuel blending into emerging applications such as Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and downstream chemicals like Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA), demand for ethanol and its feedstocks is expected to deepen further. Companies that invest early in resilient and future-ready procurement capabilities will be best positioned to emerge as long-term winners in this evolving market.
Q7. If you were an investor looking at companies within the space, what critical question would you pose to their senior management?
As an investor, my primary question would be: “How resilient, scalable, and cost-competitive is your feedstock procurement strategy across different market cycles and policy environments?”
In the ethanol business, production capacity can be added relatively quickly, but sustainable profitability depends on consistent access to the right feedstock at the correct cost and quality. I would closely evaluate how management manages procurement risks, including seasonal availability, price volatility, logistics disruptions, and policy-driven shifts in feedstock eligibility.
The company's ability to establish robust quality and logistics systems, diverse regional supply bases, broad on-ground sourcing networks, and solid connections with farmers, dealers, and mandis are all equally crucial. In a market for ethanol and biofuels that is changing quickly, businesses that approach procurement as a strategic competence rather than transactional functions are much more likely to produce stable margins and long-term value.
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to comment!