Mortgage Rates Expectations: Trends and Predictions
Q1. Could you start by giving us a brief overview of your professional background, particularly focusing on your expertise in the industry?
I have been in the mortgage and lending industry for nearly 14 years—I'll actually reach that milestone next month. Most of my experience has been as a sales leader, where I’ve championed systems and processes and focused on developing teams. My career has primarily been in sales, retail, and mortgage lending. I spent 13 years with my previous employer, a retail mortgage company, before moving to my current role on the broker side, which I’ve found even more rewarding. In addition to sales, I have extensive expertise in client service, leading client service teams, and managing social media response.
Q2. Based on what you’re seeing firsthand with borrowers, where is mortgage demand holding up best despite affordability pressures—and what’s driving it?
From my firsthand experience, I feel confident being on the broker side because we can offer clients more options than retail lenders. Right now, I’m seeing a client population that’s understandably anxious—many are held back by economic uncertainty and reluctant to make changes. Still, if you take the time to reassure clients and guide them carefully, many will at least consider improving their financial situation with their current loan. Rates are currently at what I’d call an average level, but some standout programs offer lower rates. For example, there’s a program at 4.99%, which is a compelling alternative for anyone currently paying 6% or more. However, some clients are skeptical that deals like this are legitimate, and uncertainty in the country and around the world is adding to the pressure. I have many clients who prefer to stay put simply because they’re afraid of making the wrong move, even if it’s not actually a risky decision. It can be frustrating to hear clients with high rates say they’re content, knowing there are ways I could help them.
One of the most important things lenders can do right now—especially those looking to grow—is to invest in strong client service teams. These teams can often turn around a negative experience and help retain clients for the sales force. Unfortunately, I’m seeing many companies cut back on ancillary departments, with client service often among the first to go. This isn’t a wise business move, because when issues arise, salespeople are already busy originating new business and can’t always provide the support clients need. Many companies see client service as a luxury rather than a necessity, but I believe that’s a serious mistake.
Q3. From your experience working with lenders and borrowers, which segments are becoming more attractive to lenders, and which are getting harder to serve profitably?
Clients with high interest rates—typically 6% or higher—are becoming more common, with some rates on the market reaching as high as 8.125%, which is remarkable. On the other hand, clients with much lower rates are in a very different position. For example, I’m a case in point: my former employer, who still services my loan, has reached out to offer refinancing options, but my interest rate is just 1.99% from 2020. There’s no scenario where I would give up that rate, as it’s unlikely to ever return. While I understand and appreciate their diligence in following up, there’s simply no chance I’ll refinance—in fact, I’ll pay off this home long before considering another loan.
Q4. Having worked across mortgage banking and underwriting, where are you seeing the biggest changes in underwriting discipline—and what does that tell you about lenders’ appetite for credit risk?
Risk remains a major topic in the lending industry, as most banks and lenders are naturally risk-averse. When it comes to changes in underwriting discipline, guidelines and regulations don’t evolve very often. The same loans we originated a decade ago are still governed by FHA, VA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, and these standards typically only change in response to market demand or affordability issues. For example, both FHA and VA offer streamlined refinance programs that let existing borrowers lower their interest rate or shorten their loan term with minimal documentation. Conventional loans don’t offer this flexibility, which is why more borrowers are now turning to VA and FHA loans—they know that after just six months, they can potentially refinance to a lower rate if one is available. These government-backed programs are attractive because they impose strict cost limitations to protect borrowers. From my experience in mortgage banking and underwriting, there is still an appetite for credit risk, but it is closely managed. I’ve seen loans approved with credit scores as low as 490—not considered strong credit—via FHA streamline refinances, which don’t require income verification. Essentially, the FHA’s goal is to provide affordable rates with fewer barriers for borrowers.
Q5. If you had to give mortgage industry leaders and investors one key takeaway about where the U.S. mortgage market is heading, what would it be—and what are you seeing that others may be underestimating?
I believe the greatest opportunity for the lending industry this year, especially under the current administration, is to find ways to be more flexible for borrowers. The current economic climate isn’t doing many people any favors, and while many are seeking relief, they’re often too concerned about making a wrong decision or are ineligible due to credit challenges or missed payments. An idea I haven’t seen widely offered—though it could be valuable—is for lenders to partner with clients to provide programs that borrowers could pay a premium for, granting them protection if they ever can’t make a mortgage payment. In such cases, borrowers could simply file a claim to cover the payment. In all my years in the industry, I’ve rarely heard of anything like this, but it illustrates the need for more flexible solutions. My key takeaway is that lenders should strive to increase flexibility for borrowers while still adhering to necessary guidelines.
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